Still Long Financials...

It was a wild day in the markets. Up, down, and finally closing up. The banks didn't perform as well as hoped, and I should've sold this AM. I did unload the rest of my JPM at $33.65. Citi is coming out with their 1Q earnings tomorrow AM. If they beat earnings, I expect there to be a big move up - although, if they miss...

The Tech sector was on fire though due to Nokia coming out with positive news. After today's close, Google came out with better than expected earnings as well. I picked up a position in Palm - 1500 shares @ $10.05.

Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $462
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: - $1,270
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: + $2,439
• TOTAL NET: + $1,169

JP Morgan Beats Estimates...

JPM beat estimates this AM as expected. I've been slowly layering out of positions to protect against downward movements. I'm worried that folks will sell on the news causing the sector to decline. At the same time, I'm wary of missing out on a broader rally. I'll need to remain nimble, but we'll see how the day plays out....

Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $1,918
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: + $93
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: + $2,267
• TOTAL NET: + $2,360

I've Been Out ... and Have Gotten Killed!

I've been traveling, so I missed out on a lot of the action - and I've paid for it. The Financials have gotten killed over the past two days, although they did make a slight rally in anticipation of JP Morgan's earnings tomorrow AM. I did make a couple of trades - bought NFLX and dumped it (at a loss today) for a position in Bank of America. I also went long Citigroup today before JPM's earnings. Both BAC and C are the best positioned to benefit from a strong performance which I fully expect from Mr. Dimon. Also, the markets are expecting strong Citi earnings on Friday, so there's potentially another bite of the apple we can take if JPM disappoints. We'll see.

While I'm counting on a rally, I dumped a portion of my Morgan Stanley position at a loss to reduce some exposure in that name. Their commercial real estate exposure scares me.


Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $466
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: - $1,350
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: + $1,856
• TOTAL NET: + $506

Ugly Open...

Markets have opened up down, and in particular, the financials are getting killed. GS priced its secondary offering at $123. MS (-7.5% on day) and JPM (-4.5% on day) are down significantly. Hopefully we start to see folks buying on the dip.

End of Day Wrap - Goldman Pre-announces Earnings

Markets rallied hard into the close. JPM closed at $33.70, so there's a nice little gain there. Goldman Sachs, in a surprise move, announced earnings after the market's close today along with a $5Bn secondary offering. This is what I was worried about. Despite emphatically beating earnings estimates both in EPS and revenue, it is trading down $2. Nonetheless, the news is very positive. As a related stock, I bought 800 shares of Morgan Stanley @ $26.93.

Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $1,827
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: + $360
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: + $3,569
• TOTAL NET: + $3,929

Long JPM

I bite the bullet and went long JPM. Bought 750 shares at $33.22. The good news is that it's up to $33.38. If it dips again, I will layer in another 250 shares.



Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $1,587
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: $120
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: + $3,569
• TOTAL NET: + $3,689

All Cash Now - Eying JP Morgan

Sold my remaining Goldman Sachs position at $129.75. I'm eying JP Morgan, although it has already moved up 1.5% since my last blog ($33.25 currently). If it dips, I will go long.


Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $1,467
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: $0
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: + $3,569
• TOTAL NET: + $3,569
  

Next Trades...

A positive GS earnings announcement will cause a broader bounce in the financials, in particular those in the capital markets arenas. While JP Morgan is much broader, I think they will benefit, especially with the markets salivating over their earnings announcement later this week. JPM is up $0.05 today @ $32.80.

The risk with GS currently is that there are expectations that they will price a secondary (equity) offering with earnings which will dilute existing shares. I don't want to take the risk and will sell before then.

Taking Some Profits

Markets were hovering all morning around 100pts down, but have recently sold off even more. Had a couple stop-limit orders and sold half of my GS @ $127.99 and all of my NFLX positions at $49.


Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $1,251
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: + $308
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: + $3,045
• TOTAL NET: + $3,353

Quick Market Check...

No major news out, but there's definitely some profit-taking after last week's rally. The DJIA is down about 100 pts. The good news is that both of my current holdings are doing well. GS is up over $3 and NFLX is up over $1 on the day.

Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $1,002
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: + $2,074
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: + 1,026
• TOTAL NET: + 3,100

Goldman Sachs - Much Optimism

DJIA Futures are down this AM a little bit over 100pts. Nothing terribly relevant has come out, although the markets are expecting a glut of news this week with earnings from Citi, GS, JPM< GM, Intel, amongst a few.

I'm very optimistic about Goldman's earnings which will be announced before the open tomorrow AM. As a Capital Markets oriented shop, I'm anticipating that they knocked the cover off the ball. Unfortunately, the other financials will be a mixed bag - especially with the bar being set so high by Wells last week. I bought 150 shares of GS pre-market at $123.16 - it closed at $124.33 last week. I will sell it tomorrow, unless there is a big run-up today.

Happy Good Friday!

Markets were closed today due to Good Friday, so nothing to report trading-wise. As I think about next week, I'm very comfortable that I'm all cash (with the exception of NFLX). I think the markets are overbought after the rally - although these are "momentum" markets, so you can flip a coin.

Goldman Sachs is reporting earnings on Tuesday which will be big. With the huge rally yesterday, it's almost built in that all the banks will (similarly) knock the cover off the ball. I think that Goldman can and will as trading and capital markets activity has been extremely robust, and they are as good as anyone in terms of taking advantage. However, I don't feel as comfortable for everyone else. Earnings may be decent at some places, but they won't be Wells Fargo decent. I may take a position in anticipation of GS earnings and sell right after they beat their numbers.

Massive Rally!

Sorry, was out all day on the golf course, but the beauty of technology allowed me both play and trade at the same time... I'm afraid of a little pull back next week and ended up dumping all of my positions except for NFLX with an overall portfolio gain of $2,104 today.

Unexpectedly very strong earnings from Wells Fargo spurred a massive rally today. DJIA closed up almost 250pts. Stupidly, I had a limit sell order from the other day on my JPM position at $29.05, so I missed out on an extra $1K, but it's a good lesson learned. I still made $570 (4.1%) on the trade. WMT actually missed same-store sales numbers and dropped almost 5%. I dumped it at $50.78 for a loss of $600 (-3.8%). I sold AAPL after the market closed today at $119.72, a gain of $477 (4.6%). I also executed a small day trade on FAS for an extra $220. I sold GS in the am at $120 for a nice gain of $465 (4%). NFLX was another big gainer (I'm up over $1k on the position), but I'm going to hold on to it for the time being.

The question is what's going to happen on Monday? We'll deal with that next week...

Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $2,104
  
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: + $1,072
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: + 1,026
• TOTAL NET: + 2,098
  

End of Day Rebound...

As bad as the last 10 minutes of yesterday were, today was just as good. The DJIA closed up 47pts after being down 20+pts just moments before the close. I'm not sure why it happened, but I think it's positive for tomorrow. I'm very comfortable with my positions, especially the WMT that I picked up. I think that same-store sales will be very positive for them. Everyone shops at WMT nowadays.

All-in-all, my portfolio was up $513 today (including realized and unrealized gains/losses). The tally since I started to keep track is -$6.


Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $565
  
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: + $94
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: - $100
• TOTAL NET: -$6
  

Hit on EBAY, Added Wal-Mart...

I was just hit on a trailing stop on my EBAY position. I sold it at $13.92, up $0.33, on the day. Overall, I lost $40 on the position. I have added 300 shares of Wal-Mart (WMT) @ $52.78 in anticipation of same store sales later this week.

Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $632
  
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: + $161
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: - $100
• TOTAL NET: + $61

Morgan Stanley 1Q Loss?

Saw an article on CNBC about MS and how Oppenheimer is projecting a 1Q loss of 59 cents vs previously projecting a 37 cent gain. They think that Commercial RE writedowns will be the driving factor. It remains to be seen what kind of impact Commercial RE will have, but that has long been seen as the next shoe to drop. Coincidently, Oppenheimer raised its projections for Goldman Sachs, which doesn't have the exposure, to a $1.29 1Q gain (up from $0.99). Both GS and MS are down this morning, more so than the commercial banks.

All in all, my portfolio is up slightly on the day due to strong performance in Tech. Swapping my BAC for AAPL has turned out to be a good move so far as BAC is down 2% vs AAPL which is up 1% since then.

Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: + $186
  
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: - $245
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: - $60
• TOTAL NET: -$305

Massive Sell-Off to Close the Day...

Markets tried to recover, but lost 70pts in a matter of minutes just before 4pm to close down 180pts. My portfolio got crushed along with the sell-off. Alcoa (AA) announced slightly worse than forecast earnings after the close .

Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: - $1,226
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: - $431
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: - $60
• TOTAL NET: - $491

Long Apple...

Markets tried to recover earlier today, but are currently near/at session lows. Apple is down almost $4 and I traded my BAC position for a position in AAPL. Sold BAC at a slight loss at $7.42 and bought AAPL at $114.42. My overall portfolio is down $682 today.

Since April 6:

• Today's Portfolio Move: - $682
• Total Unrealized Gain/Loss: + $53
  
• Total Realized Gain/Loss: - $60
• TOTAL NET: - $7

Ugly Start to the Day....

Markets have opened up pretty ugly this morning (DJIA down over 150pts) as both Europe and Asia were down overnight on bank sector concerns. The Times, a British newspaper, reported that the IMF was about to release a forecast that toxic debt in the bank/insurance sector could reach $4Tr which has spooked the market. I think that folks are also a little bit spooked about Alcoa which is going to report terrible earnings. My portfolio, as a result, has taken a hit - although my suspicion is that over the day, it will recover, as I still think investors are more optimistic than pessimistic. 2 months ago, they would have cratered... We'll see...


Since April 6:

• Today's Gain/Loss: - $1,291
• Total Gain/Loss: - $615

Wild Day...

It was a wild day with the markets recovering a bit at the end only closing down 41pts - definitely a healthy sign. I picked up JPM and BAC towards the end of the day which I'll likely dump tomorrow if they trade up. Netflix (NFLX) is a keeper for the time being. I may dump GS as well if we can get up to the $120 level. All in all, it was a good day with my portfolio up $675.

Since April 6:

• Today's Gain/Loss: + $675
• Total Gain/Loss: + $675

Up and Down - added JPM...

Market has been down all day, although some of the tech stocks have rebounded. Looks like my hunches on Apple and Amazon were correct, although I didn't buy in. APPL is now up almost $2 (after been down over $2) and AMZN is down $0.91 after being down over $2.

Since April 6:

• Today's Gain/Loss: + $264.03
• Total Gain/Loss: + $264.03

Stocks I'm Watching...

With today's mini sell-off, I'm eying Apple (AAPL) @ $113.66 (-$2.33) and Amazon (AMZN) @ $76.16 (-$2.01). Despite the recent rally and Mayo's comments, I also like Bank of America (BAC) @ $7.55 (-$.05). Going to watch these names...

Reality Check on the Financials?

Financials have been hit this morning on a report from Michael Mayo, a well-known banking analyst (http://www.cnbc.com/id/30066933). The thing is, he hasn't said anything different from what he has been saying - I guess it's a reality check for the markets. Also it's an excuse for folks to take some profits from the massive rally that we've experienced.

With the exception of my current holdings, I'm going to stay long cash until the morning plays itself out...

Since April 6:

• Today's Gain/Loss: + $250.02
• Total Gain/Loss: + $231.07

Favorite Web Sites for Info...

Markets continue to hover in negative territory... DJIA is down about 80pts.

My favorite sites for info:

cnbc.com
marketwatch.com
wsjonline.com
seekingalpha.com

Tracking Performance....

I decided that I'd start a blog detailing my thoughts as well as my trading performance for all to track. I've made a good amount trading the volatility - shorting the banks down to their lows and riding their ascent back to respectability.

The markets have started off slowly, but the positive market sentiment of the past several days is pushing through. Personally, I don't think it can last, but I hope I'm wrong...

Current Holdings:

• EBAY: basis 1000 shares @ $13.96, currently @ $14.00 (+0.29%), gain of $40.00
  
• GS: basis 100 shares @ $115.37, currently @ $115.00 (-0.32%), loss of $37.00
  
• NFLX: basis 300 shares @ $43.38, currently @ $44.20 (+1.90%), gain of $247.02
  

Since April 6:

• Equity Value: $38,760
  
• Today's Gain/Loss: + $250.02
• Total Gain/Loss: + $250.02